2023 Prospects: St. Louis Cardinals High Prospects

• 
• 1.
• Jordan Walker
• Pos: 3B
• Born: 2002-05-22
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 5″
• W: 220 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted twenty first total within the 2020 draft, Decatur HS (Decatur, GA); signed for $2.9 million.
• Earlier Rank: #1 (org), #7 (High 101)
• Main League ETA: Late 2023/Early 2024

The Report: Walker continued to redline each Trackman engine in Double-A regardless of not turning 20 years previous till a month into the season. His batted ball profile would have been among the many greatest within the main leagues final yr, and he routinely smacks baseballs 110 mph or extra. His contact charges stay wonderful, though he did chase extra towards Double-A pitching. I believe he’s going to make sufficient contact and hit the ball very, very arduous when he does. Walker does nonetheless hit the ball on the bottom somewhat bit greater than you’d like, and if he falls wanting a real elite energy consequence, that is perhaps why. Then again, if he tweaks his strategy sufficient and begins pulling the ball within the air extra constantly, he’s going to win residence run titles, and he began to elevate the ball extra later within the yr.

Walker is listed right here at third base and outfield—as a result of he did spend most of 2022 on the scorching nook—however is clearly transitioning to a nook outfield spot. He runs effectively sufficient and throws greater than effectively sufficient for proper discipline, however he’s going to take a while to become a mean glove on the grass. The bat is perhaps prepared earlier than the glove, and he’s nonetheless not a lock to keep away from first base in the long run, however as soon as once more this listing cycle, the offensive upside right here is so loud, that simply doesn’t transfer the needle a lot for me.

OFP: 70 / All-star slugger, place TBD
Variance: Excessive. Opposite to what I wrote about OFP 50s within the intro, you’d choose your OFP 70s to be decrease variance. Walker has true elite outcomes within the ninetieth percentile and up, however you additionally don’t need to go too far under fiftieth percentile to begin seeing “higher Nomar Mazara” in play.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Along with the huge energy, Walker has understated pace, and posts high-end dash pace. Granted, it takes him a second to rise up to hurry, and stolen bases should not seemingly a giant long-term a part of his sport. Nonetheless, his 22 steals final yr are not any fluke.  How his contact charge holds up and whether or not he’ll elevate sufficient to get to his energy in video games are the most important questions shifting ahead. Given his proximity, loud instruments, and efficiency, nonetheless, Walker is a transparent reduce top-five fantasy prospect.

• 
• 2.
• Masyn Winn
• Pos: SS
• Born: 2002-03-21
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 5′ 11″
• W: 180 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted 54th total within the 2020 draft, Kingwood HS (Kingwood, TN); signed for $2.1 million.
• Earlier Rank: #8 (org)
• Main League ETA: Late 2023/Early 2024

The Report: Winn was an intriguing two-way prep within the 2020 draft, but it surely wasn’t clear that the place participant facet alone would carry him, regardless of some offensive upside at a premium defensive spot. Two years on, he’s ditched the pitching and developed into one of many higher shortstop prospects within the sport. Guess the Satan Magic isn’t solely restricted to Day 2 school picks.

Winn’s bat broke out in a giant manner in 2022 as he began to influence the ball extra constantly. Regardless of a fairly common body, he confirmed off above-average bat pace and the flexibility to drive pitches into the gaps the place his plus-plus pace is usually good for an additional base or two. The highest line exit velocities aren’t near Jordan Walker’s, however point out potential fringe-average pop which suggests Winn may find yourself on the prime of your lineup somewhat than the underside given an above-average hit instrument.

Regardless, you’ll need him in your lineup someplace given the defensive talent set. Winn is a plus shortstop with probably one of the best infield arm in organized baseball. He’s rangy with good arms and actions, and his elite, correct arm permits him an extended clock than most different infielders. The glove will completely get Winn to the majors, however he’s now sufficient of an offensive risk that plus common is in play, even with out the mound work.

OFP: 60 / First-division shortstop
Variance: Excessive. Winn’s Double-A efficiency was extra pedestrian with further swing-and-miss, so he may settle in additional as glove who bats eighth. However he’s younger sufficient and had sufficient of a breakout as soon as his sole focus was on hitting that there is perhaps a bit extra within the tank on the plate too.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Whereas his energy could also be fringe, his fantasy worth is based on his influence pace and promising hit instrument. Winn can actually fly and is greater than keen to run, going 43-for-48 in steals final yr. His strong plate self-discipline, bat-to-ball means, and, after all, pace ought to get him on base at a wholesome clip. Even when he barely edges previous double-digit residence runs, Winn has potential to be a dynamic fantasy participant.

• 
• 3.
• Tink Therefore
• Pos: P
• Born: 2002-08-06
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 1″
• W: 175 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted 63rd total within the 2020 draft, Watson Chapel HS (Pine Bluff, AR); signed for $1,115,000.
• Earlier Rank: On the Rise
• Main League ETA: 2025

The Report: Final yr we famous that the Cardinals had been very cautious with Therefore, and he had workload considerations going again to the draft. Sixteen begins and 52 innings—plus a handful within the AFL—received’t assuage these fully, however like Dave Wasserman, I’ve seen sufficient. Equally to Marco Raya within the Twins system, Therefore is only one full(er), wholesome season away from being one of many prime pitching prospects in baseball. His fastball sits mid-90s, touches larger, and is a heavy pitch. His low-spin curve flashes the type of sheer drop you’ll normally solely discover at Six Flags, and his mid-80s change is creating effectively, displaying extra constant energy sink and fade.

That description of the arsenal certain feels like a top-of-the-rotation starter, however past having simply thrown a tick underneath 70 skilled innings, Therefore has a slender, slim body and an effortful supply. There’s bodily projection left, however I don’t suppose he’ll ever look the a part of a sturdy, 180-inning starter. He doesn’t need to throw that many frames to be superb—it’s the 2020s in spite of everything—however the supply additionally results in some overthrowing and fastball command points, and I do marvel the way it holds up when he’s anticipated to go greater than three innings per outing. It is a very, very excessive variance prospect profile, however the best tail outcomes alongside that large swath are fairly tantalizing.

OFP: 60 / no. 3 starter or late inning reliever
Variance: Nicely…very, very excessive. Therefore may very simply get away subsequent yr as soon as the coaching wheels come off, finish the season in Double-A, and be a prime 25 prospect within the sport. He may additionally throw one other 50 innings…intermittently.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Therefore, a standout in June, has three electrical, bat-missing choices that evaluate favorably to among the prime pitching prospects in baseball. But, as emphasised above, he’s a excessive–borderline excessive–danger prospect given his body and restricted innings to this point. Relying on how danger averse you might be, Therefore may fall throughout the prime 50 or exterior the highest 100 in fantasy.

• 
• 4.
• Gordon Graceffo
• Pos: P
• Born: 2000-03-17
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 4″
• W: 210 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted within the fifth spherical of the 2021 draft, Villanova College; signed for $300,000.
• Earlier Rank: On The Rise
• Main League ETA: Late 2023/Early 2024

The Report: Shortly after getting drafted by the Cardinals, Graceffo noticed a major velocity leap, and he maintained it in 2022, commonly sitting within the mid-90s with above-average sink and command. The now plus fastball has helped his changeup, and his greatest offspeed ticks each field to be plus as effectively. He sells the cambio effectively, it reveals good fade away from lefties, and has 10 mph of velocity separation off the fastball. Each of Graceffo’s breaking balls lag behind the remainder of the arsenal. The slider is the first glove-side providing and has common potential within the upper-80s, flashing strong two-plane motion. His curve is used sparingly and has extra of a 12-6 form. In contrast to Therefore, Graceffo is already constructed like a mid-rotation starter, and whereas his stuff doesn’t have the identical upside, the plus fastball/change combo and superior strikethrowing ought to have him contributing to the Cardinals main league rotation in brief order.

OFP: 60 / no. 3 starter
Variance: Medium. Graceffo missed fewer bats and was a bit extra homer-prone in Double-A, however these issues can occur if you pitch your property video games in Springfield. He does must get a type of breaking balls to common to hit the mid-rotation consequence, however Graceffo is a reasonably high-floor starter after sustaining his 2021 fastball positive aspects.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Graceffo is a prototypical higher in-real-life than in fantasy pitching prospect. His fastball, whereas efficient, doesn’t miss many bats, and his pound-the-zone strategy is geared to forcing batters to place the ball in play and avoiding walks. That stated, Graceffo must be good for robust ratios and consuming innings, which all the time has a spot in fantasy.

• 
• 5.
• Cooper Hjerpe
• Pos: P
• Born: 2001-03-16
• B: Left
• T: Left
• H: 6′ 3″
• W: 200 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted twenty second total within the 2022 draft, Oregon State College; signed for $3,182,200.
• Earlier Rank: N/A
• Main League ETA: Late 2024/2025

The Report: Hjerpe throws within the low-90s from a close to sidearm arm slot. Virtually no person can hit it. Even 5 years in the past or so, the BP Prospect Crew would have gathered across the digital desk like Clint Eastwood and John Goodman and contemplated how Hjerpe may have gone within the first spherical. However he in all probability wouldn’t have gone within the first spherical then, regardless of being a Golden Spikes finalist after a junior season of utter dominance within the Pac-12. His four-seam fastball from that low slot has elite vertical strategy and regardless of righties getting an extended take a look at it, they’ve been principally helpless to hit it. Hjerpe additionally gives a classy sweeping slider and a fairly projectable change he hasn’t wanted a lot. He may not want it a lot within the execs both.

OFP: 55 / no. 3/4 starter
Variance: Medium. We’ll see if professional hitters additionally hate Hjerpe’s one bizarre trick, however there’s a pair of first rate secondaries backing the fastball, and he’s all the time thrown strikes.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Hjerpe is a unicorn, “with a sub-4.5-foot vertical and -3.5-foot horizontal launch level–decrease and wider than any beginning pitcher in MLB.” The distinctiveness of his launch level causes all his choices to play up. It additionally makes it troublesome to undertaking him. Nobody hit him in school. Hjerpe is a profile to gamble on after the highest bats in upcoming FYPDs.

• 
• 6.
• Leonardo Bernal
• Pos: C
• Born: 2004-02-13
• B: Swap
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 0″
• W: 200 lbs.
• Historical past: Signed January 2021 out of Panama for $680,000.
• Earlier Rank: N/A
• Main League ETA: 2026

The Report: The Cardinals highest-dollar signing within the 2021 IFA class, Bernal carried out effectively in an aggressive task to the Florida State League as an 18-year-old. Already constructed like a significant league backstop, he units a giant, regular goal, is a quiet, versatile receiver with good arms, and is twitchy and reactive on balls within the filth. The one weak point in Bernal’s defensive sport is fringy arm energy and carry which he covers for to an extent with a fast switch and launch.

On the plate, the change hitting catcher is way extra superior from the left facet, with above-average exits regardless of nonetheless being an adolescent for an additional season. Bernal is compact inside, stage towards balls up within the zone, and capable of flip and elevate fastballs along with his solid-average bat pace. There’s a hair an excessive amount of swing-and-miss within the zone—particularly towards offspeed—however a few of that may be defined by seeing full-season spin for the primary time in his life. The appropriate-handed swing is a little more of a piece in progress, not unusual for an inexperienced switch-hitter, but it surely’s effectively, effectively behind the lefty stroke at this level—extra tentative, much less in sync along with his decrease half, and extra susceptible to each strikeouts and weak contact.

It’s an extended path from an 18-year-old catcher in A-ball to the majors, and Bernal doesn’t have a lot to offer again on the plate if the standard offensive attrition takes maintain as he makes his manner by the minors. However he’s a complicated prospect on each offense and protection already, and any positive aspects with the hit instrument, particularly from the best facet, may transfer him into the High 101 dialog earlier than he’s legally capable of drink.

OFP: 55 / Above-average catcher
Variance: Excessive. Regardless of being ranked forward of Ivan Herrera on the 2023 model of this listing, a wonderfully cheap consequence is Bernal slides down the Cardinals rankings like Herrera did, because the offensive instruments get overwhelmed again by the trials of on a regular basis catching. A twenty fifth percentile consequence right here is one thing like a 3rd catcher in your 40 for a couple of years. Bernal additionally does have the potential to be one of many 5 greatest backstops within the sport, oh…six years or so from now. Catchers are bizarre, man.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Usually, it’s not suggested to focus on 18-year-old catchers absent extraordinary circumstances. Bernal almost justifies it along with his spectacular pop, together with a 110 mph max exit velocity and 87 mph common exit velocity in Low-A. His uncooked strategy wants work, although. In deeper codecs or two-catcher codecs, he must be in your radar.

• 
• 7.
• Alec Burleson
• Pos: RF
• Born: 1998-11-25
• B: Left
• T: Left
• H: 6′ 2″
• W: 212 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted seventieth total within the 2020 draft, East Carolina College; signed for $700,000.
• Earlier Rank: #4 (org)
• Main League ETA: Debuted in 2022

The Report: Burleson continued to rake within the higher minors in 2022, leaving opposing pitchers singing the blues once they got here by Memphis. He’s steep however direct to the ball, and prioritizes contact with two strikes, making him able to driving pitches early in counts, whereas being a pesky out afterward. Burleson does wish to swing, however he doesn’t broaden a lot. The 2-strike strategy has stored his strikeout charge low, however can restrict his means to influence the ball, in order that bears watching within the majors, however given his means to sting stuff within the zone typically, he looks like that traditional Cardinals .270, 22-home run man. Burleson might want to get all the way in which there although, as he’s unlikely to run stellar OBPs and has restricted defensive worth. He’s fringy in a nook outfield spot as he’s, effectively, a burly dude, and his reads and routes aren’t splendid, and first base—which he performed a good bit of in his main league cameo—is occupied for the subsequent couple seasons. St. Louis is nearly as good as any crew in baseball by way of defensive positioning although, and if they’ll stand Burleson in adequate spots on the grass, you’ll be greater than wonderful seeing him standing within the batter’s field day in and day trip.

OFP: 55 / Three corners bat with simply sufficient hit and energy to play on a regular basis
Variance: Medium. Burleson’s first run within the majors was higher than the highest line numbers, however he has little or no margin for the offensive instruments as it is a bat-first profile.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: A “traditional Cardinals .270, 22-home run man” is helpful in most fantasy codecs. Whether or not the Cardinals will abdomen Burleson’s protection to get his bat of their crowded lineup, although, is an actual concern. Regardless, he ought to obtain a glance this yr in some unspecified time in the future and both thrive or permit fantasy managers to maneuver on. Burleson must be rostered in codecs with as much as 200 prospects.

• 
• 8.
• Matthew Liberatore
• Pos: P
• Born: 1999-11-06
• B: Left
• T: Left
• H: 6′ 4″
• W: 200 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted sixteenth total within the 2018 draft by the Tampa Bay Rays, Mountain Ridge HS (Phoenix, AZ); signed for $3,497,500. Acquired from the Rays for Randy Arozarena.
• Earlier Rank: #3 (org), #65 (High 101)
• Main League ETA: Debuted in 2022

The Report: Liberatore has bounced across the center of our High 101 for a number of years now as a high-probability mid-rotation lefty. He by no means actually dominated within the minors, however with the misplaced 2020 and a leap straight kind A-ball to Triple-A, you could possibly give him some leeway. However finally these reviews are about projecting main league efficiency, and neither Liberatore’s Triple-A or MLB work recommend a clear-cut above-average main league starter anymore. There’s stuff to love nonetheless, particularly the secondary stuff. Liberatore’s high-spin, mid-70s curve has a pleasant form and misses a good quantity of bats, and his upper-80s slider bores in on righties and has sufficient run to make it a tough left-on-left providing as effectively. The principle downside is Liberatore’s fastball will get hit arduous. A few of it is a management and command difficulty, a few of it’s a motion and spin difficulty, He’s run pretty vital platoon splits within the upper-minors and his sparingly used change isn’t going to mitigate that within the medium time period. If Liberatore tightens up the command and will get some extra floor balls—maybe he may lean on his sinker a bit greater than the four-seam—the offspeed is perhaps above-average sufficient to make him a helpful backend starter.

OFP: 50 / no. 4 starter
Variance: Low. Liberatore is major-league-ready—and has main league service time—however may not have a major-league swing-and-miss pitch.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: A back-end starter with out “a major-league swing-and-miss pitch” and a hittable fastball mustn’t usually be rostered exterior of deep codecs. Liberatore’s proximity and breaking balls present sufficient intrigue to maintain him on the fantasy radar in codecs with as much as 200 prospects.

• 
• 9.
• Michael McGreevy
• Pos: P
• Born: 2000-07-08
• B: Left
• T: Proper
• H: 6′ 4″
• W: 215 lbs.
• Historical past: Drafted 18th total within the 2021 draft, UC-Santa Barbara; signed for $2.75 million.
• Earlier Rank: #6 (org)
• Main League ETA: Late 2023

The Report: Like Graceffo, McGreevy obtained a 2021 velocity bump, though his got here throughout his junior season for UC-Santa Barbara. He additionally held his positive aspects in 2022, however his fastball is extra low-90s than 95. The pitch works within the zone although, attributable to with the ability to sink it down, experience it up, and customarily work across the margins with above-average command. McGreevy did begin to run into points in Double-A, and whereas a few of that may be defined by park and league context, he could lack a swing-and-miss providing amongst his three secondaries. His mid-80s change is one of the best current choice. It’s an average-ish pitch he can pull the string on every now and then, however tends to twist it off a bit and it’ll agency up. His mid-80s slider has extra reduce than tilt, and is inconsistent in form, whereas his low-80s curve has a extra repeatable 11-6 break, however is brief and not likely a bat misser.  McGreevy has an uptempo supply, however repeats it effectively and his command profile is ok sufficient, but it surely’s not a carrying instrument to mid-rotation starter by itself.

OFP: 50 / no. 4 starter
Variance: Low. I believe it’s truthful to pref McGreevy over Liberatore—I went backwards and forwards—as he’s extra more likely to have success throwing his fastball within the zone towards main league hitters, and his command is a bit finer. The shortage of a transparent swing-and-miss secondary goes to restrict the ceiling at current although, and he struggled at his first run in Double-A.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Command-first profiles with mediocre stuff can become viable fantasy arms, however the margins are slender, and narrower nonetheless and not using a bat-missing secondary providing like McGreevy.

• 
• 10.
• Iván Herrera
• Pos: C
• Born: 2000-06-01
• B: Proper
• T: Proper
• H: 5′ 11″
• W: 220 lbs.
• Historical past: Signed July 2016 out of Panamá by the Cardinals for $200,000.
• Earlier Rank: #9 (org)
• Main League ETA: 2023

The Report: After prospect writers spent effectively over a decade writing up Cardinals catching prospects blocked by Yadier Molina, Herrera is in the best place on the proper time to stake a declare as the subsequent beginning catcher in Busch Stadium. He’s improved behind the plate and is now a elegant, above-average defender, receiver who units a giant, quiet goal. The facility he confirmed in 2021 didn’t return, however the tradeoff was a bit extra bat to ball. The general offensive instruments are going to be fringy, as Herrera isn’t very twitchy on the plate—and he can wrestle to get to velocity on the outer half—however as a strong defensive backstop who may pop double-digit residence runs, he’ll not less than be placing his identify within the hat to exchange St. Louis’ long-tenured star backstop.

OFP: 50 / Common catcher, glove over bat
Variance: Low. Molina has lastly retired, opening up the Cardinals beginning catching function for the primary time for the reason that George W. Bush administration. Herrera is more likely to be a candidate for the Opening Day job as he has a robust glove and little left to show within the minors. However he additionally doesn’t have the type of upside that may maintain you from buying and selling a pair names larger on this listing for say, Sean Murphy as a substitute.

Jesse Roche’s Fantasy Take: Herrera seems to have a reasonably clear path to a considerable function subsequent yr. On the identical time, the Cardinals additionally look like linked to only about each catcher rumor on the market. If Herrera runs into a daily function, nonetheless, he may shock with loads of contact and sneaky pop. That’s one huge “if,” although.