Week 11 of the 2022 NFL season obtained going with the Inexperienced Bay Packers falling 27-17 to the Tennessee Titans at Lambeau Subject. Sunday options a number of intriguing storylines, together with how extreme climate pressured the Cleveland Browns–Buffalo Payments recreation to maneuver to Detroit and the Minnesota Vikings taking part in as an underdog at dwelling in opposition to the Dallas Cowboys.
What’s price taking a look at from a betting perspective? And what are the very best performs that will help you make sensible wagering selections?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Info’s Seth Walder; and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their perception into the video games with suggestions and picks.
Be aware: Traces from Caesars Sportsbook except in any other case indicated.
The Cowboys (6-3) journey to U.S. Financial institution Stadium to face the Vikings (8-1) in what ought to be top-of-the-line video games of Week 11. Minnesota is at the moment a 1.5-point underdog regardless of successful seven straight video games since Week 2. Who’re you taking on this recreation and what are your emotions on the Vikings’ probabilities to win the NFC (+450) after the Eagles’ loss final week?
Fortenbaugh: Dallas -1.5. How can the Vikings be 8-1 whereas getting outgained by a median of 25 yards per recreation? Easy reply: They have been very lucky. Minnesota is an effective group, nevertheless it is not an amazing group. Consider it like this: The Vikings are 8-1 however have outscored their opponents by simply 35 whole factors this season. Evaluate that to the 5-4 Patriots, who’ve outscored their opponents by a grand whole of 37 factors this season. Whenever you eradicate the file and have a look at it by way of the lens of a group’s level differential, you see that the Vikings aren’t as superior as their file signifies.
Schatz: I really feel like I am beating a useless horse — a useless horse that retains coming to life and biting me again — however the Vikings simply aren’t excellent. They’re actually dwelling on the sting with seven straight one-possession wins. It is uncommon to have an 8-1 group with a unfavourable yards per play differential, and the Vikings are the primary 8-1 group within the 42-year historical past of Soccer Outsiders metrics to have a unfavourable DVOA. The Cowboys fell with their loss to Inexperienced Bay, however nonetheless rank fourth in DVOA. The Vikings are seventeenth. Dallas is best than Minnesota in all three phases this season. Give me the Cowboys for a canopy.
I am additionally not taking the Vikings to win the convention at +450. Our playoff odds simulation means that quantity is about half what it ought to be. In line for the No. 2 seed, the Vikings can be notably harm by the latest growth of the playoffs to seven groups per convention. They’re unlikely to win three straight video games in opposition to good groups.
Fulghum: I just like the Cowboys to win this recreation and canopy, however I love the over 47.5. The Cowboys’ protection has slipped of late and simply allowed the disappointing Packers offense to attain 31. Kirk Cousins all the time performs higher at dwelling and I belief Dallas’ passing offense to do its half in opposition to a Vikings protection that’s permitting 400.2 yards per recreation (twenty ninth within the NFL).
So far as the convention is anxious, I do not purchase the Vikings as a legit contender. I do not assume Cousins and a rookie head coach can survive what would possible be a three-game single-elimination route by way of the NFC playoffs. I consider Philadelphia, San Francisco and Dallas usually tend to symbolize the NFC within the Tremendous Bowl than Minnesota.
Marks: I love the Vikings on this spot. I really feel the flawed group is favored right here. The Vikings are dwelling after a monumental upset win in opposition to the Payments Mafia. They’re some of the balanced groups within the NFL, and one might argue that Justin Jefferson is the very best WR and Cousins is without doubt one of the most understated QBs within the league. The Cowboys are coming off a loss to the Packers, are on their second straight street journey and have a extra essential matchup in opposition to the Giants simply 4 days in a while Thanksgiving. The Cowboys’ protection has given up 60 factors mixed of their previous two video games, in opposition to the Packers and Bears.
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Joe Fortenbaugh expects the Bears to attain a number of factors after they face off in opposition to the Falcons in Week 11.
The New York Jets (6-3) enter Week 11 as a 3.5-point underdog to the New England Patriots (5-4) at Gillette Stadium. The Jets are top-of-the-line groups within the NFL in opposition to the unfold this season however are 8-20 ATS of their previous 28 matchups in opposition to AFC East opponents and have did not cowl in 4 of their previous 5 matchups after a bye week. What are your ideas on the unfold and whole (38) for this recreation and who do you want?
Schatz: Jets +3.5 at New England is my favourite guess of the week. Each defenses have been very sturdy this 12 months, however the Jets’ offense (nineteenth in DVOA) has been higher than the Patriots’ offense (twenty sixth). I do know we’re used to Invoice Belichick complicated younger quarterbacks, however Robert Saleh may get Mac Jones fairly confused too. A defensive battle is prone to be an in depth recreation, giving the Jets a superb likelihood to cowl even when they do not take the W.
Fulghum: Jets and Patriots in Foxborough positive looks as if a slugfest. I might play the whole below 38, which is uncomfortably low, however have a look at how every group is attempting to win. The Jets are 6-3 by limiting Zach Wilson‘s alternatives and leaning on a robust protection (see the 20-17 win vs. the Payments). I’ve no concern over Saleh and his employees devising a recreation plan in opposition to a struggling Mac Jones, and Belichick will certainly have one thing enjoyable lined up for Wilson on this street atmosphere.
What are a very powerful issues our analytics say?
Walder: There are three video games for which the FPI disagrees with the betting market.
Las Vegas Raiders at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 41.5)
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Empower Subject at Mile Excessive, Denver
FPI prediction: Raiders by 3.8
“Any person has to win this recreation,” Nathaniel Hackett stated this week. And I’m removed from the primary to level out; that’s not true! Placing apart the numbers for a second, I am completely happy the FPI is on the successful facet if this recreation someway leads to a tie, which might be so cosmically becoming. Again in actuality, this can be a big disagreement with the market. Probably the most evident distinction between these two groups is on protection, the place Denver has top-of-the-line items and the Raiders have one of many worst. However offensively, we will not underrate how poor the Broncos have been. At -.06 EPA/P with Russell Wilson on the sphere, that makes them a bottom-three unit. Whereas the distinction between these two groups has been bigger on protection, offense is extra predictive from week to week.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5, 41) at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
FPI prediction: Bengals by 9.8
Even outdoors of the FPI, I am unable to cease enthusiastic about this chart posted by Tom Bliss from the NFL league workplace’s analytics group, which is every week outdated however nonetheless I believe applies. On the time, the chart indicated that the Steelers had been the luckiest group within the NFL when it comes to win likelihood gained through fumble recoveries, opponent dropped interceptions, opponent dropped passes and opponent area objectives and further factors. Most of that’s not mirrored within the FPI’s scores, in order that should make us much more bullish on the Bengals, whom the FPI already loves relative to Pittsburgh.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-5, 52) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
FPI prediction: Chiefs by 10
There’s one essential cause why the FPI likes the Chiefs right here: energy of schedule. No group has confronted a more durable energy of schedule this season so far than the Chiefs, and no group has had a better energy of schedule than the Chargers. So once we add that context to the truth that the Chiefs are the very best offense in soccer and have been higher on either side of the ball than the Chargers, that is why the mannequin is so bullish on Kansas Metropolis.
What’s your favourite guess for Week 11?
Fortenbaugh: Bears group whole over 23.5 factors. Why is that this so low? Chicago has eclipsed this mark in every of its previous 4 outings, throughout which era the franchise is averaging 31 factors per recreation. This matchup takes place in a dome in opposition to a Falcons protection that ranks twenty seventh in scoring and thirty first in opponent yards per play. Search for Justin Fields and the Bears to hold one other large quantity on Sunday.
Marks: New York Giants -3 vs. Lions. Each groups are taking part in on Turkey Day. The Giants have an enormous recreation in opposition to the Cowboys, however with this teaching employees is not going to be trying forward. The Giants’ offense is eighth in EPA, and Daniel Jones has solely two interceptions this season. The Giants simply do not make errors. Detroit is final in yards per go allowed on third down, the place Jones thrives.
Snellings: Lions-Giants over 45 factors. The Lions are likely to play in online game scoring contests. Their mixed level totals have been no less than 58 in six of their 9 video games, together with two of their previous three. They’d a recreation final month the place 93 (!) whole factors have been scored. I do know the Giants prefer to play ball management and protection, however I believe the Lions’ scoring tendencies (on either side of the ball) will rule the day.
Moody: Rams +3. at Saints. Cooper Kupp is out with an ankle damage and can miss time for the Rams. There was some excellent news for Los Angeles in that Matthew Stafford can be again below heart for Sunday’s recreation in opposition to the Saints. Kupp’s loss is devastating for the Rams’ offense since he accounted for 35.7% of all receptions getting into Week 10, the best mark within the league. In opposition to the Rams, the Rams can prioritize the working recreation, and this can be a excellent matchup to take action. New Orleans ranks twenty fourth in run cease win charge and is coping with quite a few accidents. The Saints are 2-7-1 in opposition to the unfold and Andy Dalton can be below heart. My suggestion is to again the underdog Rams.
What’s your favourite participant prop?
Snellings: Brian Robinson Jr. over 63.5 speeding yards. Robinson runs indignant and is coming off the very best recreation of his younger profession with 26 carries for 86 yards and a landing in opposition to the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Texans are cartoonishly unhealthy in opposition to the run. They’ve given up nearly 200 extra yards than the next-worst group within the NFL (the Packers), and the Packers have performed an additional recreation! Robinson has an amazing likelihood of nabbing his first century recreation within the NFL on Sunday.
Moody: Robinson Jr. over 63.5 speeding yards. I agree with Andre on Robinson. The Texans have allowed an astounding 181.8 speeding yards per recreation. With Robinson, the Commanders can be smart to use that weak spot. Since Week 6, he is averaging 16.8 speeding makes an attempt and 56.6 speeding yards per recreation. Within the final three video games, solely the Giants (34.4), Ravens (30.4) and Bears (36.0) had extra speeding makes an attempt per recreation than the Commanders (28.8).