Week 12 offers us a trio of Thanksgiving Day video games to be pleased about, after which as soon as everyone seems to be recovered from turkey and stuffing, we get a slate of Sunday video games that features a number of intriguing matchups, together with the Cincinnati Bengals visiting the Tennessee Titans and an evening sport between the Inexperienced Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles.
What’s price from a betting perspective? And what are the very best performs that will help you make good wagering choices?
Betting analysts Doug Kezirian, Tyler Fulghum, Joe Fortenbaugh, Anita Marks and Erin Dolan; fantasy and sports activities betting analysts Eric Moody and Andre Snellings; ESPN Stats & Data’s Seth Walder; and Soccer Outsiders’ Aaron Schatz provide their perception into the video games with suggestions and picks.
Be aware: Traces from Caesars Sportsbook except in any other case indicated.
After a turnaround victory final Sunday, the Buffalo Payments (-9.5, 54.5) are heavy favorites over the Detroit Lions for his or her Thanksgiving Day matchup. The Lions are 6-4 ATS and 4 of their 5 dwelling video games have gone over the entire. What are your ideas on this sport, and who do you want?
Fortenbaugh: I am taking part in beneath 54.5 complete factors. Positive, the Lions have scored 31 factors in every of their previous two video games, however that got here towards the Bears and Giants. It is a step up in school towards a Buffalo protection that ranks fifth in scoring. By the best way, even with these two current performances by the Lions, Detroit continues to be averaging simply 18 factors per sport over its previous six outings. The Payments should not have any downside working the ball right here and ought to be inspired to take action to take among the weight off Josh Allen‘s ailing elbow.
Schatz: This is one other vote for enjoying the beneath. We pay a lot consideration to Allen that generally we fail to understand how sturdy the Payments protection is. Buffalo is presently third in defensive DVOA behind New England and Dallas. In the meantime, the Lions’ protection has truly been above common, eleventh in DVOA, since its Week 6 bye. These are two good offenses as properly, however that 54.5 is a really excessive quantity contemplating the standard of the defenses concerned.
Moody: The Lions have not had many wins on Thanksgiving Day in recent times, and I count on that pattern to proceed towards the Payments. Nevertheless, I do count on the Lions to maintain this nearer than the unfold suggests. Detroit is 7-2 ATS in its previous 9 dwelling video games. The Lions can be sensible to lean on their working sport on this matchup. Over the previous three video games, the Payments have allowed the Thirteenth-most dashing yards per sport. The Lions are on a three-game profitable streak and taking part in their finest soccer thus far this season on either side of the ball, and I count on to see that pattern to proceed Thursday.
Marks: The Lions are taking part in very laborious for Dan Campbell and have gained three straight video games (Packers, Bears, Giants). They’ve been outgained in yardage however are victorious as a result of they win the turnover battle. The Payments common extra turnovers per sport than any workforce within the NFL. Detroit is healthier in each trenches. I just like the Lions getting the 9.5 and can use them in my Thanksgiving Day 3-team teaser (+15.5).
Snellings: Lions +9.5, over 54.5 factors. I am sufficiently old to recollect when the Lions have been anticipated to be a positive factor on Thanksgiving. They have not been that in awhile, however quietly, these Lions have been spectacular of late. They’ve gained three straight outright over stable competitors, and within the sport earlier than they went toe-to-toe with a Tua Tagovailoa-led Dolphins squad that is basically undefeated this season. Enjoying at dwelling, towards a Payments workforce with points, I believe the Lions cowl. And I will go over as a result of I nonetheless do not belief the Lions’ protection and assume Allen should put some factors on the board to beat them.
The Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 45.5) are on the lookout for their fifth straight dwelling victory and welcome the New York Giants to AT&T Stadium on Thanksgiving Day. The Giants are 2-9 ATS of their previous 11 conferences towards Dallas, whereas the Cowboys are 22-8 ATS of their previous 30 video games towards NFC East opponents. Can the Giants pull off the upset on a brief week, or will Dak Prescott and America’s Staff maintain rolling?
Schatz: I have been driving the “Giants are overrated” bandwagon since early within the season, and I am not going to cease now. Dallas ought to win this sport. However that line of 9.5 is admittedly large and actually not price taking part in. The Cowboys are higher on protection than offense, and the Giants are worse on protection than offense. However we additionally know offense is extra predictive than protection, and so we have to think about it extra when contemplating future strains. In truth, if this line went to 10 I’d even play the Giants as an underdog.
Moody: I am backing the Cowboys. Dallas bounced again properly from its additional time loss at Inexperienced Bay by dismantling the Vikings. Tony Pollard‘s emergence has come at a good time for the Cowboys, and he now faces a Giants protection that ranks twenty eighth in run cease win price. Dallas is 9-2 towards the unfold in its previous 11 matchups towards the Giants, and New York has misplaced its previous 5 video games at AT&T Stadium.
Marks: The Giants are injury-riddled and barely have heat our bodies to area a workforce. They are going to be beginning their fourth and fifth beginning corners. Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb ought to feast on this Giants protection. A bug has ravaged the Giants for the previous two weeks — many gamers have been affected final week towards the Lions, and now those that missed the primary wave are sick this week. I would not be shocked by a 31-13 beatdown, so I will lay the factors with Dallas (-9.5) and in addition embrace them in my teaser (-3.5).
Snellings: Over 45.5. The Cowboys are so Jekyll and Hyde proper now that I do not really feel comfy with giving the 9.5 factors. However Anita’s level is properly acquired that the Giants’ protection is struggling proper now, and it simply gave up 31 factors to the Lions final week. The Cowboys ought to put an enormous quantity on the board this week, so I will play the over.
0:39
Ryan Clark previews the Patriots’ matchup vs. the Vikings on Thursday night time.
Within the final sport of the day, the New England Patriots, recent off a decent division victory over the Jets, face the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5), who suffered their first dwelling lack of the season final Sunday. Are oddsmakers overlooking New England or do you count on Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and the Vikings to bounce again Thursday night time?
Fulghum: The transfer off the important thing variety of 3 is peculiar to me, however I cannot be deterred. I just like the Vikings on this spot largely as a result of I can’t belief their offense to supply sufficient factors on this atmosphere to cowl a quantity lower than a FG. Mac Jones has regressed tremendously this 12 months. The Joe Decide-Matt Patricia experiment is predictably unimpressive. Groups with explosive skill by way of the air may give the Vikings issues, however that actually shouldn’t be New England. It is doable Kirk Cousins performs as poorly as Jones on this matchup — particularly as a result of the sport is in prime time — however as unusual as it would sound, I belief Cousins greater than Jones. Vikings -2.5.
Fortenbaugh: Underneath 42.5 is the place you will discover me. New England’s offense stinks, however its protection has been improbable. I am betting Invoice Belichick sells out towards the Minnesota passing assault in an effort to restrict the Vikings’ large performs, which suggests Dalvin Prepare dinner ought to be in for an excellent sport on the bottom.
Schatz: The Vikings are the primary 8-2 workforce to ever have a detrimental level differential, and so they’re the worst 8-2 workforce ever in keeping with our DVOA scores. They are not as dangerous as they regarded in a 40-3 loss final week, however they’re simply very mediocre throughout, barely beneath common in DVOA for all three phases. Clearly, the Patriots are pushed by protection, and protection is more durable to foretell than offense, however a few splits that time out how they will decelerate the Vikings: The Patriots are fourth within the league towards No. 1 vast receivers and fifth towards tight ends. Even in Minnesota, I will take the Patriots and the factors. Patriots +2.5.
Moody: I just like the Patriots. The Vikings’ protection is permitting the fourth-most complete yards per sport to opponents. Edge rusher Matthew Judon and the Patriots’ protection ought to be capable to strain Cousins, particularly with left deal with Christian Darrisaw out. The Patriots are 9-4 towards the unfold of their previous 13 video games following a straight-up win. Moreover, New England is 4-1 towards the unfold in its previous 5 Thursday video games. It’s well-known that Cousins struggles in prime-time video games.
Marks: This Patriots protection is sick, rating second in factors allowed, yards allowed, strain price and sacks. The Vikings confirmed how weak they’re towards a terrific cross rush (Cousins was sacked seven instances). Cousins will now be with out beginning LT Darrisaw towards the Patriots and Matt Judon — good luck with that! My play is beneath 42.5, and I’ll full my teaser with the Patriots +8.5.
What’s your favourite wager for Thanksgiving
Fulghum: The Giants are a 9.5-point street underdog towards the Cowboys. That is the kind of anticipated detrimental sport script which may have them dropping again lots within the second half to play catch-up. The one downside? They do not actually have any vast receivers accessible to catch the ball in the intervening time apart from Darius Slayton. Rookie WR Wan’Dale Robinson tore his ACL within the Week 11 loss to Detroit, and Richie James is coping with a knee damage which may affect his availability. Slayton has been the one dependable pass-catcher on the perimeter for this workforce. He has had 58-plus receiving yards in 5 of his previous six video games. Slayton ought to see loads of motion from Daniel Jones on Thursday, particularly if the Giants are taking part in from behind as anticipated. Slayton over 46.5 receiving yards.
What’s your favourite participant prop for Thanksgiving?
Walder: Von Miller beneath 0.25 sacks (+110 at DraftKings). I do know it would not really feel nice, and Miller has recorded a sack in six of 10 video games this 12 months, however I’ve this as a worth. The large cause? Jared Goff. For all of the Lions’ issues, Goff taking sacks is not one in all them. His 4.3% sack price is sixth lowest within the league.
Schatz: I famous above that the Patriots are excessive in DVOA towards No. 1 receivers and tight ends. So who will Kirk Cousins throw to? I am betting we see an excellent quantity of Adam Thielen on this sport. His line is 44.5 receiving yards, and Thielen has topped that in three of the previous 4 video games in addition to six of the ten video games this 12 months. Let’s go together with Thielen over 44.5 receiving yards (-117).
Moody: Tony Pollard over 67.5 dashing yards. Pollard has averaged 108.6 dashing yards per sport over the previous three video games and has six dashing makes an attempt of 15 or extra yards over that span. The Giants’ protection has allowed the eighth-most dashing yards per sport this season.
Marks: Matt Breida over 10.5 dashing yards (-120). Various Giants gamers are coping with an sickness that has ravaged the locker room the previous two weeks, and Saquon Barkley may be coping with one thing this week. We’re additionally at concerning the time of the season when load administration is vital for groups wanting ahead to the postseason. Breida has exceeded 10 dashing yards in 5 of his previous seven video games.
Regardless of a 7-3 document and multigame lead within the AFC South, the Tennessee Titans are 1.5-point underdogs to the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12. What are your ideas on this line? Are oddsmakers disrespecting the Titans, or will Cincinnati come away with its fifth victory in six video games on Sunday
Fulghum: Oddsmakers are disrespecting the Titans and Mike Vrabel, extra notably. Tennessee could have the remaining benefit coming off its Week 11 Thursday night time win at Inexperienced Bay. Vrabel and Derrick Henry have dominated on this spot. Tennessee is a really reside underdog.
Fortenbaugh: My favourite betting pattern in all of soccer is that this: Since taking on as head coach of the Titans in 2018, Vrabel has had at the least 10 days of preparation for eight regular-season video games. In these eight video games, Vrabel is 8-0 SU, 8-0 ATS and beating the closing level unfold by an common of 17.5 factors per sport! I believe that tells you all you could learn about the place my cash can be for this one.
Schatz: Our DVOA scores have these groups very shut collectively, with the Bengals presently tenth and the Titans twelfth. However that features two Malik Willis video games. Take these out of the Titans’ offense and the Titans would have the upper ranking between the 2 groups. As well as, the Titans’ cross protection has actually been taking part in properly since their Week 6 bye, fifth within the league in DVOA up to now 5 weeks. So I will take the Titans right here as slight underdogs.
Snellings: The Titans have been disrespected all season, full cease. They’re an excellent workforce and ought to be handled as such. With that mentioned, the Bengals have been virtually equally neglected, notably after their 0-2 begin. However when wholesome this season, the Bengals have gained at a greater price than final season’s Tremendous Bowl squad and could possibly be getting Ja’Marr Chase again Sunday. These two groups even have historical past, with the Bengals beating the No. 1-seeded Titans in Tennessee throughout final season’s playoffs. I believe the unfold is affordable in what ought to be a heavyweight battle Sunday. The extra attention-grabbing play, to me, is over 42.5 factors. The Titans have a powerful protection, however the Bengals ought to put factors on the board. The Bengals’ defensive weak spot has been on the bottom, and Derrick Henry ought to eat. I believe this one goes over, comfortably.
1:01
Discipline Yates names Antonio Gibson as the popular Commanders working again in fantasy over Brian Robinson Jr..
The Washington Commanders, winners of 5 of their previous six video games, are 4.5-point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons, who sit only a half-game again of the Buccaneers within the NFC South. Atlanta began the season 6-0 ATS however has didn’t cowl in 4 straight video games and barely lined towards the Bears final week. In the meantime, the Commanders are 3-0 SU in video games which they’re favored this season. Can Taylor Heinicke maintain the Commanders sizzling this weekend, or will Atlanta pull off a shock victory?
Fortenbaugh: Love the Commanders right here. Atlanta needs to run the soccer. Too dangerous for them Washington excels at stopping the run, rating second in Soccer Outsiders’ rush DVOA metric. If not for a late interception, Washington would enter this matchup using a six-game profitable streak. There is a good case to be made that Washington is essentially the most underrated workforce within the NFL proper now.
Moody: Commanders -4.5. Mr. Fortenbaugh and I appear to be on the identical web page. It’s possible that the Commanders’ protection can pressure the Falcons’ offense out of its consolation zone, which is working the ball. Atlanta ranks fourth within the league with 32.8 dashing makes an attempt per sport. The Commanders rank ninth in run cease win price. Will probably be an intriguing sport because the Commanders and Falcons jockey for playoff place. Washington is 18-7-1 towards the unfold in its previous 26 video games following a straight up win.
There’s nonetheless time to enroll in ESPN Fantasy Basketball! Play without spending a dime
What are an important issues our analytics say?
Walder: There are three video games for which the FPI disagrees with the betting market.
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 47.5) at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Arizona
FPI prediction: Cardinals by 3.9
FPI is assuming Kyler Murray performs right here, which is a part of why there is a large disagreement with the market — as a result of Murray’s standing shouldn’t be really sure. However what this line is telling us is that the mannequin believes the Cardinals are higher than the Chargers on a impartial area with Murray at QB. Which is probably a sizzling take! However it additionally not that sizzling of a take. The Chargers have been been higher in EPA/P on offense by 0.02 and worse on protection by 0.03. However the Chargers have additionally performed the better schedule.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5, 45.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington, Texas
FPI prediction: Cowboys by 13.9
The mannequin is totally shopping for the Cowboys after their 40-3 dismantling of the Vikings and now sees Dallas as a real Tremendous Bowl contender. It has by no means purchased in on the Giants, who’ve had a document above their expertise stage all 12 months.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5, 43) at Cleveland Browns
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland
FPI prediction: Buccaneers by 0.5
The Browns’ protection has been atrocious. That has value them wins, however it has additionally hidden simply how efficient the offense has been with Jacoby Brissett beneath heart. Cleveland ranks sixth in EPA per play due to a wonderful floor sport and an above-average passing assault by way of effectivity. Brissett ranks sixth (sixth!) in QBR. All of that is to say — the Browns are higher than their document.
2:44
Discipline Yates previews a number of matchups from Thanksgiving weekend together with: Payments vs. Lions, Texans vs. Dolphins and the Steelers vs. Colts.
What’s your favourite wager for Sunday?
Fulghum: My favourite wager is banking on the Miami Dolphins to attain a variety of factors at dwelling towards the Houston Texans. Not solely is Houston’s protection not that good, particularly towards the run, it is compounded by the truth that the Texans’ offense is Dameon Pierce and a bunch of nothing. If he is not churning out yards, then the opposition is more likely to get a variety of possessions and good area place. Mike McDaniel ought to be capable to scheme circles round this protection on the bottom and thru the air. Dolphins workforce complete over 29.5.
Fortenbaugh: Commanders -4.5 over Falcons for all the explanations I listed above.
Schatz: Let’s go together with over 43 because the Tampa Bay Buccaneers go to the Cleveland Browns on Sunday. A tough schedule of opposing defenses has helped conceal simply how environment friendly the Browns’ offense has been this 12 months. The Browns presently rank fourth in DVOA! Truthfully, I am unsure how they get higher after they get Deshaun Watson again as a result of issues are already going so properly. The Buccaneers have total been a really common offense however a greater passing sport, and the working sport may be resuscitated partially by changing Leonard Fournette as beginning working again with Rachaad White. Plus, the Buccaneers are the fastest-paced offense within the NFL this 12 months if you take a look at how a lot sport time goes between performs. Extra performs means extra factors.
Moody: Chiefs -14.5. The Chiefs’ offense has been a juggernaut all season, rating first in complete yards per sport and factors per sport. With an 8-2 document, Kansas Metropolis is raring to make an announcement within the postseason, whereas the Rams are basically out of the playoff race at 3-7. Los Angeles is with out Cooper Kupp, and now Matthew Stafford is within the league’s concussion protocol. It is a large quantity, however I would be shocked if the Chiefs performed all the way down to their opponent on this matchup.
Snellings: Dolphins -13.5 over Texans. The Dolphins can rating at will when wholesome, and they’re totally loaded proper now. Their working again room has been thriving as properly since Jeff Wilson got here to city, and I count on them to gash the Texans each on the bottom and thru the air. In the meantime, the Texans have averaged solely 17.7 PPG of their previous 4 outings, and I simply do not see the place they’ve the weapons to maintain up with the Dolphins on Sunday.
