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Liz LozaESPN
Joe Mixon‘s early Week 11 exit prevented him from hitting the over. Samaje Perine picked up the slack and was consequently 15% added in ESPN fantasy leagues heading into this weekend. Whereas that scenario was disappointing, it was nothing in comparison with the intestine punch Dameon Pierce delivered. Pierce’s totes and yardage have steadily decreased over the previous three weeks. Maybe a change from Davis Mills to Kyle Allen will enhance issues, however the outlook is not almost as sunny because it was a month in the past. He is at present the RB16 in ESPN’s consensus rankings.
However sufficient of the detrimental, this can be a time to be grateful!
And I am thrilled that three of my 5 props hit in Week 11. Let’s push for perfection this go-around.
Utilizing ESPN’s metrics database and a few help from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I am right here that can assist you win in fantasy and on the books.
Buffalo Payments (-9.5, 54.5) at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Discipline, Detroit
Decide: Devin Singletary UNDER 57.5 speeding yards
It is a entice. Between the matchup and the sport script, fantasy managers could possibly be tempted to over mission Singletary’s potential manufacturing. Do not fall for it.
Buffalo ranks fourth in general move fee. Recreation script does not change that. The Payments additionally rank first in move fee when main. On the uncommon event the group does decide to the bottom recreation, the operating backs rush to the left greater than 35% of the time (ninth highest). Curiously, the Lions permit the sixth-fewest yards per carry to RBs when operating left (third most on all different carries).
Even when this recreation does get out of hand and the Lions cannot cowl the nine-point unfold, there is no assure Singletary will get tapped for mop-up responsibility. James Cook dinner recorded 11 totes in an eight-point victory over Cleveland final Sunday. He was additionally extra environment friendly than Singletary, posting the identical variety of speeding yards on 7 fewer carries. A efficiency like that figures to maintain the rookie within the combine.
Buffalo Payments (-9.5, 54.5) at Detroit Lions
Thursday, 12:30 p.m. ET, Ford Discipline, Detroit
Decide: Gabe Davis OVER 55.5 receiving yards
The difficulty with Davis has all the time been quantity. Since Buffalo’s Week 7 bye, nonetheless, Davis has averaged over 7 targets per contest. Final week he managed a season-high 32% goal share. It seems that feeding the 23-year-old is sweet for the offense. Davis has cleared the above line 13 occasions over his profession. In these 13 outings, Buffalo has outscored the opposition by a median of 10.7 factors. And, whaddayaknow, the Payments are 9.5-point favorites on Turkey Day.
The unfold is indicative of Buffalo’s offense … in addition to Detroit’s move protection. The Lions have allowed the sixth-highest deep-pass fee (55.1%) and the second-highest common depth of goal (aDOT) in opposition to (8.5 yards). Within the aforementioned 13 contests wherein Davis recorded at the very least 56 yards, he additionally posted an aDOT of 18 yards. By that math, he wants solely to corral 4 balls to hit the over, which appears completely doable given the matchup and the Payments’ pass-happy method. He is my WR20 for the week.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 45.5)
Thursday, 4:30 p.m. ET, AT&T Stadium, Arlington
Decide: Ezekiel Elliott OVER 46.5 speeding yards
Jerry Jones does not care about your fantasy group. It does not matter that Tony Pollard is producing 2.8 extra yards per contact than Elliot. Or that he almost doubled Elliot’s speeding yards on the identical variety of carries final week. Elliot continues to notch double-digit totes, averaging 3.7 extra carries per contest than Pollard.
Elliot has recorded at the very least 15 carries in six of his previous seven video games. That is the identical variety of totes he has dealt with coming off the knee subject that sidelined him for a pair of contests. In the meantime, operating backs dealing with the Giants have cleared 10 carries eleven separate occasions this season (and Elliot hasn’t gone beneath that quantity at any level over 2022). Subsequently, quantity shouldn’t be a difficulty. Effectivity, nonetheless, could possibly be.
But these 11 aforementioned RBs mixed to common 5.5 yards per carry when dealing with the G-Males. Moreover, New York has allowed 957 speeding yards (eleventh most) between the tackles. That is a per recreation common of almost 96 speeding yards up the center. Elliot handles the lion’s share of inside runs, recording 50 extra such rushes than Pollard because the starting of final season.
Between recreation script (-10) and matchup (NYG is permitting 4.7 YPC), Elliot can plod his approach to 60 speeding yards and a rating. He is a low-end RB2/high-end flex for fantasy functions.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Financial institution Stadium, Minneapolis
Decide: Kirk Cousins OVER 0.5 INT
Kirk Cousins has thrown eight interceptions to date into 2022. Three of these got here in Week 2 at Philly. That recreation was in prime time. So is that this one. Cousins has been picked off in seven of his previous eight prime-time outings.
Quarterbacks are inclined to throw picks once they’re pressured. New England is third within the NFL in strain fee (33.8%). Consequently, Cousins has been astray on almost 28% of pressured move makes an attempt over the previous two seasons. The addition of a expertise like Justin Jefferson might definitely increase a signal-caller’s confidence. The Patriots, nonetheless, seem up for the problem. New England has allowed the fewest fantasy factors to opposing wideouts over the previous 4 weeks and simply 4 TDs to the place on the season.
Lastly, Vegas is projecting an in depth recreation with the unfold simply 2.5 factors within the Vikings’ favor. Coming off of a disastrous efficiency at Dallas, there is a good probability Cousins feels squeezed and begins urgent. One blunder and the over hits.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Financial institution Stadium, Minneapolis
Decide: T.J. Hockenson OVER 4.5 receptions
Minnesota likes to play quick. Actually, the Vikings rank sixth in move fee, fourth in move fee when trailing and third in move fee when trailing by at the very least a discipline aim. (Keep in mind, the unfold is 2.5 in Minnesota’s favor.) That interprets right into a excessive variety of move makes an attempt for Cousins (37.7 per recreation, QB4). Noting the lockdown nature of New England’s cornerbacks, nonetheless, Cousins is prone to hone in on Hockenson and increase his tight finish’s already substantial variety of alternatives. Hockenson is operating a route on greater than 80% of dropbacks (up from 74.8% when he was in Detroit). Moreover, since becoming a member of the Vikings, he has drawn at the very least 9 appears to be like in each recreation, making him the one tight finish within the league to put up nine-plus targets over three consecutive outings. The previous Lion has managed a 66.2% catch fee over the season. One other 9 appears to be like at that conversion fee and he closes out the week with six grabs.
Bonus Pumpkin Pie Prop
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Financial institution Stadium, Minneapolis
Decide: Jakobi Meyers OVER 54.5 receiving yards
Meyers shouldn’t be a fantasy star, however he is a dependable flex choice. He has recorded double-digit fantasy factors in all however two video games this 12 months. His numbers have really been up. And I am not simply speaking in regards to the TDs. Meyers’ YAC per catch has elevated 25% in 2022. That is key to this matchup, as Minnesota has given up the ninth-most yards after the catch thus far this 12 months.
New England’s slot man is averaging 4.9 catches per contest. Because the starting of 2021, when he has transformed 4 passes he has subsequently cleared 60 yards. That yardage complete goes as much as 67.4 yards per recreation when corralling 5 or extra balls. It is shut (that is why this a bonus), however a 5-59-0 stat line appears inside attain, significantly when noting that almost 65% of New England’s yards comes through the air when coming into the week as underdogs.
Comply with Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF
