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Liz LozaESPN
Turkey Day began chilly with Devin Singletary cruising and Gabe Davis conking out. Issues warmed up by the afternoon, although, and stayed scorching by the night because of Zeke, Captain Kirk, Hock and Jakobi.
4 of my six picks hit, making for a really grateful vacation. Let’s push for perfection this go-around. Utilizing ESPN’s metrics database and a few help from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I am right here that can assist you win in fantasy and on the books.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions (-1, 51)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Subject, Detroit
Decide: Christian Kirk OVER 60.5 dashing yards
After a pair or white scorching showings, Kirk’s manufacturing went chilly in Week 12. The Jaguars main receiver managed a snap share above 90 %, ran 36 routes, and drew 9 seems, however struggled to transform versus Marlon Humphrey‘s ace protection. Regardless of the 4-46-0 stat line, Kirk was closely concerned and figures to bounce-back this Sunday.
Trevor Lawrence instantly locked in on Kirk, who has emerged as his QB’s favourite goal over the course of 2022. The previous Cardinal has recorded at the least 9 seems in 4 of his final 5 video games, whereas moreover discovering the tip zone thrice during the last three weeks. Jacksonville’s utilization tree stays deliciously slim, which ought to proceed to work in Kirk’s favor, significantly if Travis Etienne is at lower than one hundred pc.
The regular quantity figures to yield top-14 fantasy numbers in a matchup in opposition to the Lions rotating solid of cornerbacks. Detroit’s carousel-like secondary has allowed the third most fantasy factors to opposing wideouts and the third most receiving yards to the slot (the place Kirk aligns 80% of the time).
In a sport with shoot-out enchantment (1-point unfold), Kirk’s alternatives ought to be plentiful. On condition that he is averaged 65.9 yards per contest when drawing greater than 5 seems the over figures to hit tougher than the wind chill (don’t fret, the Lions play in a dome).
Jaguars at Lions
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Subject, Detroit
Decide: Jamaal Williams OVER 57.5 receiving yards
Regression as a rule is straightforward to foretell. Pin-pointing when, nevertheless, is frustratingly tough. Williams is a regression candidate… which is why I prevented his anytime TD prop. His dashing output, nevertheless, has been constant during the last month, offering fantasy managers with one thing way more concrete to wager on.
Solely 4 RBs have carried the rock 15+ occasions in every of their final 4 outings. They’re: Derrick Henry, Jonathan Tayor, Josh Jacobs… and Jamaal Williams. (That is some high-level firm.) There’s an opportunity De’Andre Swift – who didn’t seem on the Lions damage report this week – regains among the dashing alternatives. Nevertheless, on condition that the Lions have received three of their final 4 video games there’s little impetus for Ben Johson to tweak the present components. Even when Swift picks a number of exterior runs, Williams stays the crew’s between the tackles grinder.
That also works in Williams favor, because the Jaguars have been extra profitable at limiting exterior runs than rushes up the center. In reality, Jacksonville has allowed a mean of 90.7 dashing yards to backs after they have recorded at the least 15 totes… which is true in Williams’ candy spot.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
Decide: Drake London Anytime TD (+280)
London’s early season spark has fizzled over the course of his rookie effort. But, his pink zone enchantment – the precise trait that made him such an interesting faculty prospect – continues to point out up on the subsequent degree. The USC product has transformed 7 of 11 pink zone seems (WR12) whereas no different Flacon has drawn greater than 4 alternatives within the pink space. Kyle Pitts was the crew’s solely different high-value goal (who accounted for these aforementioned pink zone seems, by the best way)… and he is out for the 12 months.
Usually, I do not advise chasing TDs. London’s position paired with the matchup, nevertheless, is just too prime to miss. The Steelers have given up essentially the most scores to exterior receivers (12). From Weeks 7-12 Pittsburgh has develop into a bottom-two pink zone protection, permitting a TD on 72.7% of journeys to the hazard zone.
T.J. Watt‘s return helps the run protection, which ought to drive Atlanta to place the ball within the air. Admittedly, Marcus Mariota‘s arm is rarely one thing to belief, however London’s skill in contested conditions could be (and has been) counted on.
The percentages could also be in opposition to me right here. However stats and expertise do not lie. In the event you’re up for it, think about this the lengthy shot of the week.
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders (-1, 49.5)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Decide: Keenan Allen OVER 64.5 receiving yards
It has been an extended season for Allen buyers. Since getting back from a hamstring pressure that had him sidelined for seven weeks, nevertheless, the Chargers’ slotman has posted double-digit fantasy factors in back-to-back efforts.
Allen recorded his most efficient fantasy outing final Sunday, managing a season-high snap share of over 87% and working a route on 88.7% of his dropbacks. He additionally discovered the tip zone for the primary time in 2022, closing out the week as fantasy’s WR22. I count on the ascent to proceed and have him aggressively ranked inside my top-10 this weekend.
Allen’s presence has helped to enhance his QB’s effectivity. Justin Herbert has accomplished 75.3 % of his passes over the previous two weeks. The one different sport through which he hit an analogous excessive (76.5%) was again in Week 1… with Allen on the sphere for nearly a half… and versus the Raiders.
Las Vegas has allowed an 81.3% completion price to the slot. Consequently, Allen has been stellar on the within, changing 10 of 13 alternatives when focused within the slot. With Mike Williams nonetheless nursing an ankle situation, Allen figures to be peppered by a rejuvenated Herbert. The amount and the matchup in what initiatives to be a high-scoring sport (50.5) ought to result in some decidedly overdue fantasy fireworks.
New England Patriots at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 42.5)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, U.S. Financial institution Stadium, Minneapolis
Decide: Kenneth Walker III anytime TD (-115)
Walker’s current lack of effectivity has despatched fantasy managers right into a justified panic. The rookie has posted simply 43 whole dashing yards over his final pair of video games. However he scored twice final Sunday… and people touchdowns do not determine to cease in Week 13.
Walker has recorded 35 pink zone carries (RB3) and 9 dashing scores (RB5) up to now into 2022. Most just lately, he is crossed the aim line 5 occasions over his final 4 efforts. His position within the offense is evident and uncontested. That’s large, particularly contemplating the proliferation of muddy backfields.
The Seahawks are seven-point favorites at Los Angeles. Gamescript, subsequently, units him up for a 15-20 contact day. And his odds of discovering the tip zone skyrocket, assuming he will get these 15 totes. That is as a result of the Rams have given up a rating in every of the 5 contests whereby a lead again has notched 15+ carries when going through them. Consider Aaron Donald‘s absence and Walker is in for a top-15 outing.
Bonus:: New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings (-3, 44.5)
Mike White OVER 242.5 passing yards
Tis’ the season to be beneficiant and joyful. Mike White‘s dominant efficiency erased any Scrooge vibes, leaving even essentially the most jaded managers buzzing with Vacation Cheer. I am leaning into the magic and selecting to consider. Reportedly per Jeff Ulbrich, White has impressed in apply all through the season. He’ll showcase his arm expertise when he travels to Minnesota to tackle a Vikings squad that has allowed the second-most passing yards to opposing QBs during the last 4 weeks. As three-point underdogs enjoying catchup in opposition to one of many league’s fastest-paced offenses, White presents stream enchantment on Sunday.
Observe Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF
