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Liz LozaESPN
Watching the ESPN HQ Warfare Room root for Mike White as he soared previous the over was my private spotlight from Week 13. Christian Kirk and Keenan Allen hitting undoubtedly added to the great vibes. Nevertheless it was a bummer to see Jamaal Williams fall brief and Kenneth Walker III exit early with an ankle damage. Drake London did not rating a TD, however he did put up a season-high 95 yards, so a minimum of the fantasy course of was spot on.
Finally, three of my six picks hit, making for a strong weekend. Let’s push for perfection this go-around. Using ESPN’s metrics database and a few help from stats ace Kyle Soppe, I am right here that will help you safe the bag in fantasy and on the books.
New York Jets at Buffalo Payments (-10, 43)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
Choose: Josh Allen OVER 0.5 INTs (-137)
Allen sits atop the QB rankings as fantasy’s QB3 total. As his traders are nicely conscious, nonetheless, the Payments’ signal-caller has gone over 20 fantasy factors in solely two of his previous six outings. That is not one thing, however nonetheless greater than nothing, significantly given the present positional panorama. He’ll stay a top-three FF play this weekend, however going through a resurgent Jets squad, Allen seems to be in for an even bigger battle than beforehand anticipated.
The Jets’ protection has been stellar, permitting QBs a 62.5 completion proportion and giving up the second-fewest fantasy factors to the place. In truth, New York prevented Allen from scoring through the air whereas forcing two interceptions the final time the crew hosted the Payments again in Week 9. Allen has struggled with accuracy — tossing 5 picks — since injuring his elbow in that effort.
The video games wherein Allen has performed clear have all come reverse defenses with a worse than common TD move charge in opposition to. That is not the Jets, although. New York has managed the second-best (lowest) opponent TD charge, permitting simply 11 aerial scores on the season. Furthemore, Allen’s INT charge is immediately proportional to his proportion of deep passes thrown (ahem, Gabe Davis). In truth, over 5% of Allen’s deep passes are picked off. That is illuminating when noting that groups are inclined to throw deep versus the Jets, a squad that’s fourth-highest in aDOT in opposition to.
Whilst 10-point underdogs, the Mike Whereas-led Jets are fixing for a struggle. The crew’s protection — which has compelled a formidable 12 INTs — will likely be on the lookout for each benefit. Whether or not it is a results of elbow ache or one thing else, Allen has introduced with a transparent vulnerability. It may not translate to a down redraft effort however will be leaned into by sports activities bettors and DFS fans.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2, 51.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Ford Area, Detroit
Choose: Jared Goff OVER 272.5 passing yards (-125)
Lamar Jackson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Trevor Lawrence are banged up. In the meantime, Justin Fields and Aaron Rodgers are on a bye. Oh, and Tom Brady is going through the Niners. So, yeah, within the final week of the fantasy common season — when tens of millions of digital squads are vying for a postseason run — the QB panorama is bringing huge Duffer Brother vibes. Eleven is not right here to save lots of the day, however No. 16 very nicely may.
Goff has managed a YPA of seven.81 over his previous six residence video games. Subsequently, simply 35 move makes an attempt may get him over the above line. Given a projected level whole of 51.5, that appears extra possible than doable, particularly when contemplating that Goff has cleared 37 move makes an attempt in each sport that has introduced with an over/underneath of a minimum of 50 factors in 2022.
The Vikings have struggled to defend the move, permitting essentially the most yards to opposing QBs at a median of 299.6 per contest. With Goff’s finest playmakers again to well being, his effectivity has elevated. In truth, the previous Rams’ passer score when not pressured has improved to eighth total. Minnesota has made an effort to deliver extra strain, however the crew has nonetheless struggled to generate chaos, recording the sixth-lowest profitable strain charge within the NFL.
That offers Goff a bonus in what initiatives to be a detailed sport with plenty of ping-pong potential. He is a high-end stream with low-end QB1 enchantment. I would anticipate him to flirt with 300 passing yards in a divisional showdown.
Choose: D’Andre Swift OVER 63.5 whole yards- (-127)
After weeks of being shrouded in bubble wrap, Swift was unleashed in Week 13. He recorded an 18-touch efficiency for the primary time since Week 1 final Sunday. Swift posted 111 scrimmage yards and over 21 fantasy factors in that outing, indicating his return to well being and readiness to carry out down the stretch.
Swift has recorded double-digit touches in 24 of 35 (68.5%) profession video games. Moreover, he has managed a minimum of 4.0 YPC in 19 of these 24 efforts (79%). Provided that the Lions’ backfield has averaged simply over 32 touches over the crew’s previous 5 outings, Swift ought to flirt with a minimum of 16-18 touches (50-56%) on Sunday. Sixteen touches at 4.0 YPC places Swift at 64 scrimmage yards. That is his flooring.
The Vikings have been stiffer on the bottom than via the air. However Minnesota has struggled versus elusive RBs who thrive in house, permitting the ninth-most dashing yards on makes an attempt exterior of the tackles (versus the fourth-fewest dashing yards between the tackles). Jamaal Williams remains to be very a lot the crew’s inside grinder (90% between the tackles charge). In the meantime practically 35% of Swift’s makes an attempt have been exterior the tackles.
Moreover, Swift stays the Lions’ most popular again on passing downs, averaging over three catches per contest. That units up properly in opposition to a Vikings squad that has allowed the sixth-most receptions and third-most receiving yards to opposing RBs. Finally, Swift’s versatility makes him onerous to take off of the sphere, particularly in a sport with a lot scoring potential. He deserves top-15 consideration heading into the weekend.
Kansas Metropolis Chiefs (-9, 44) at Denver Broncos
Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, Empower Area at Mile Excessive, Denver
Choose: Isiah Pacheco OVER 63.5 dashing yards (-117)
Full disclosure: should you’re a Jerick McKinnon fan then this is not the prop for you.
Admittedly, the info supporting Pacheco’s position because the RB1 is proscribed. Nonetheless, McKinnon has by no means — over a seven-year profession — managed a 160-carry season. In truth, the 30-year-old has been extra productive via the air than on the bottom, recording extra receiving yards than dashing yards since touchdown in Kansas Metropolis. That leads me to consider Pacheco would be the favourite to guide the crew’s dashing effort at Mile Excessive.
Denver’s protection has been stellar. Nonetheless, the Broncos’ passing protection grades out barely larger than the crew’s run-stopping unit (a four-point differential per LBM). It is a distinction that opposing offenses have famous, as 39.4% of yards versus Denver come through the bottom (ninth-most). The chance of dashing makes an attempt for Okay.C. moreover will increase when noting the unfold. Recreation script is rarely a lock, however as 9-point favorites, the Chiefs determine to lean on the run on this one.
As expertise wealthy because the Broncos’ protection may be, the crew additionally seems to be exhausted. A 3-9 file after a summer time of hype will do this. Apparently, Denver’s defensive effectivity has waned over the previous seven video games. The Broncos have allowed the fourth-most yards to RBs earlier than contact (2.95 YPC) from Weeks 7-13, besting solely the Panthers, Chargers and Texans. Given Pacheco’s ultra-extra working model, an 80-yard effort and top-20 fantasy exhibiting is nicely inside cause.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 46.5)
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati
Choose: Tyler Boyd UNDER 40.5 receiving yards (-119)
After drawing the identical variety of targets as Tee Higgins versus Okay.C., Boyd turned just a few heads final week. Whereas the Bengals’ slotman completed second in receiving yards, he is unlikely to smash in Week 14. Higgins enters Sunday sans an damage designation and Ja’Marr Chase attracts a positive matchup. With the crew’s top-two producers again, Boyd may very well be omitted within the chilly, even with Hayden Hurst sidelined.
Greg Newsome II is a foul man. His protection of slot receivers has been impeccable this yr. The Browns have allowed the second-fewest yards per slot move (6.1), largely because of Newsome’s dominance. A Boyd breakout would not seem possible when Newsome has given up simply 2.2 catches and 19.1 yards (DB8) per contest. Which may change have been Boyd to exit the slot — the place he aligns for over 77% of his snaps (WR2) — however with the return of Chase and Higgins the percentages aren’t good.
That is as a result of Boyd has been held to underneath 70 yards in seven of eight video games when each Chase and Higgins have been energetic over the course of 2022. Moreover, the possibility of huge play is eradicated when noting that Boyd hasn’t managed a 20-yard reception in 4 of his previous 5 outings.
With six groups on bye, accidents mounting and sleepers more and more onerous to return by, Boyd’s state of affairs is tempting. However he is not the Hail Mary flex that is going to push digital squads into the playoffs. Reasonably, he is a high-floor play that will not lose managers the ultimate sport of the common season.
Bonus picks
Vikings at Lions
Choose: Adam Thielen OVER 4.5 receptions (+112)
I promised listeners on “Fantasy Focus” that I used to be going to mess with a Thielen prop. Right here it’s. The over/underneath on this sport has moved a bit, but it surely’s nonetheless excessive at 51.5 factors. That is numerous potential alternatives for a receiver who has averaged 5 catches when the pregame whole is a minimum of 50 factors.
Miami Dolphins (-3, 53.5) at Los Angeles Chargers
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Choose: Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 42.5 dashing yards (-139)
Mike McDaniel did his finest Kyle Shanahan final week with the RB switch-a-roo. I am not shopping for it. Wilson is the dude. I am not even positive he must be to hit the over on this prop. The Chargers have allowed a league-high 5.6 yards per RB carry this season. In the meantime, Wilson has recorded 5.2 YPC because the starting of the yr.
Comply with Liz on Twitter @LizLoza_FF
